3.1.1 Macroeconomic and Industry Review, Market share

Macroeconomic and Industry Review

According to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development[1], the global economic situation remained complex throughout 2024. Despite easing monetary policies by the central banks worldwide, interest rates remained relatively high, as inflation slowed more gradually than initially anticipated and remained above target levels. Looking ahead to 2027, there is no expectation of accelerated global economic growth, primarily due to the stagnation of growth in developing economies. Global economic growth is projected to stabilize at around 3% per year, with developed countries growing at 1.8% annually and developing countries at 4% annually.

The main drivers of Russia’s economic growth in 2024 were the industries of the real sector, primarily the manufacturing industry, with the machine-building complex making the main positive contribution. Consistent growth, as in the previous year, was observed in construction and agriculture. A stable situation in the labor market and an increase in real disposable income had a positive impact on the recovery of consumer activity.

According to the 2025-2027 socio-economic development outlook, the main driver of economic growth will be domestic demand, both consumer and investment, to be satisfied through the development of a supply-side economy and the consistent achievement of the targets stipulated by the President’s Decree^[1]. In 2025, taking into account the tight monetary conditions of 2024, inflation is expected to be at 4.5% YoYyear on year (at the end of 2025). From 2026, inflation will reach the target level of 4.0%.

Updated forecast of the Bank of Russia on macroeconomic fundamentals for 2025-2027
(market consensus based on the December 2024 polling of market insiders)[2]

Demand outlook for 2024-2027

Electricity demand outlook in the Company’s areas of service for 2025-2027, billion kWhkilowatt-hour

Forecast changes of consumption in the Perm region are due to the following factors:

• development of current industrial consumers (the largest growth is expected in metallurgy, chemical and building components industries);
• increased consumption by railroad transportation;
• increased residential construction and grown residential consumption.

Forecast changes of consumption in the Sverdlovsk region are due to the following factors:

• development of current manufacturing enterprises (the largest growth is expected in metallurgy and machine-building industry);
• increased residential construction and grown residential consumption.

Forecast changes of consumption in the Chelyabinsk region are due to the following factors:

• development of current manufacturing enterprises (the largest growth is expected in metallurgy);
• grown residential consumption.

Pricing and tariffs in the Energy Sector for 2025-2027

According to the 2025-2027 socio-economic development outlook, the mid-term indexation of transmission tariffs for consumers shall total 11.6% in 2025, 6.3% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. The indexation of regulated residential tariffs shall total 12.6% in 2025, 5.2% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. The above-mentioned indexation does not consider standalone decisions of the Government, made to eliminate local imbalances in standalone regions, decisions of the Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service on approval of agreements on regulated operations and decisions of the Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service on approval of regional regulators’ statements on tariffs different from the ones, established by the Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service.

Forecasts on changes of electricity tariffs in 2025-2027

[1] Source: https://economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/

[2] Source: https://cbr.ru/statistics/ddkp/mo_br/